If Paris wants to contain Iran, it might as well prepare for a showdown
The American decision not to certify the Iranian nuclear agreement of July 14, 2015, arguing that the strategic interests of the United States and its regional allies are in danger, caused a mini-scandal in Europe. Emmanuel Macron has however conceded that the Iranian ballistic program and its enterprise of domination of the Middle East pose a problem. Promptly, he offered the mediation of France. In view of the declarations, by way of response, of Ali Akbar Velayati, adviser to the Guide of the Revolution, who affirmed that the Iranian ballistic program “didn’t look at France”, the thing is not self-evident.
The Geneva Accord has not kept its promises
Beforehand, it would have to fully recognize that the nuclear agreement has definitely not kept its promises. His negotiation was part of a global maneuver supposed to produce a diplomatic “great reversal” in the Middle East: moderation and restraint of Iranian policy, primacy of economic development, establishment of the foundations of a future Iranian-American friendship. If Iran seems to respect the technical clauses of this agreement, it has been disappointed elsewhere. We are far from the vision of a calmer regime, in the process of secularization, anxious to fit into globalization.
Instead, the regime is pushing the fires in the region. He opened a “Shia highway” to the Mediterranean; it upsets the Sunni Arab regimes and threatens the borders of Israel. While retaining most of its nuclear infrastructure, Tehran is developing the missiles that will one day be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Farewell to the dream of an Islamic market democracy! Significantly, Paris, London and Berlin also point to the Iranian ballistic program and the destabilization of the region, with its shocks in return.
Panshiite bigotry causes the worst
In fact, the Sunni Arab regimes will not accept Shiite domination in the region and we already have to fear the consequences of Iranian policy. Even as the Western coalition and the Arab-Kurdish forces have driven the "Islamic State" from Raqqa, Tehran's sectarianism as well as the abuses of the Panshiite militias on the ground could very quickly provoke the emergence of new forms of Sunni jihadism.
Europe is concerned about this and, to a certain extent, European capitals validate Donald Trump's analysis. With hindsight, would we understand that the alleged diplomatic success of July 2015 was not one? At most, the deadlines have been postponed, but nothing has been definitively settled. Not without reason, European diplomacy intends to keep this agreement, but by adding two additional pillars to it: the limitation of the ballistic program of the regime and the repression of its ambitions in the Middle East.
Towards a showdown with Tehran
In this perspective, Emmanuel Macron intends to act as intermediaries. The goal is laudable. There could be synergies between an American pole of " strength dominance on the one hand, a European pole of soft diplomacy on the other, although diplomacy without force proves futile. That said, let's face it. Tehran will not accept the calling into question of an agreement which is generally favorable to it: the essentials have been preserved, the sanctions have been partially lifted, the regime's power and influence are extending to the Middle East. Therefore, why engage in a new negotiation?
If Paris, London and Berlin want to contain Iran, let these capitals prepare for a showdown. Already Tehran threatens and the Pasdarans announce the acceleration of the ballistic program. The reinstatement of sanctions may not be enough. Unless we give up on the objectives set, hoping that the regime, for reasons beyond our control, will exercise restraint, we will not avoid confrontation and its dangers.
Tempest warnings
So the French president and European leaders should explain what Iran's strategy of "aggressive sanctuarization" of the Middle East and IRGC access to the eastern Mediterranean would entail. When will Iranian or Hezbollah strikes on Israel? In the short term, the security of gas exploitation facilities in the Levantine basin and Eastern Europe would also be threatened. Finally, this violence which upsets the balance in the eastern Mediterranean could reach the western basin and North Africa, on the southern flank of a Europe within firing range of Iranian missiles.
More broadly, we should question the vision of the world of Europeans and its discrepancy with a certain number of geopolitical realities. We are no longer in the 1990s, this “world of yesterday” tending towards the extension of political and economic liberalism. Over the past fifteen years, a front of revisionist, anti-Western powers has taken shape, and the Iranian regime is its advanced point.
More lucid Americans
In some respects, American leaders have understood the "spirit of the times" and are more lucid than their European counterparts. Already threatened by fragmentation, the “narcissism of small differences” and impotence set up as a virtue, Europe is once again confronted with the old problem of the conservation of being. If Emmanuel Macron shares the diagnosis drawn up by the Trump Administration, he will have to accept the showdown with Tehran and its implications.
Source: © Iranian threats: Macron up against the wall – Talker
