Trump challenges Pyongyang a little more

Faced with the war of words and nerves between Washington and Pyongyang, the whole world is worried, fearing a fatal sequence. But Donald Trump continues his warlike rhetoric. “The military options are now firmly in place, locked in and ready to be put into action should North Korea act recklessly. It is to be hoped that Kim Jong-un will choose another path." he tweeted this Friday morning. Later in the day, the American president assured that if his North Korean counterpart attacked Guam, the American island located in the Pacific, he would regret it “really” and “quickly”.

Thursday afternoon already, he had persisted and signed in his threatening posture, believing that those who criticized his words were wrong. Aren't you too hard?, asked the journalists, after his promises to triggerfire and anger» if Pyongyang persisted in threatening US territory. "Maybe my statement wasn't harsh enough," he shot back. North Koreans have braved "our country for a long time and it's time for someone to step up for the people of this country and for the people of other countries," Trump said. American presidents “have been negotiating for twenty-five years. Look at Clinton. He went to bed during his negotiations. He was weak and ineffective. Look what happened with Bush… with Obama. He didn't even want to talk about it. Me, I talk. It is time,” he insisted.

Threat to Guam

During his campaign, his instinct for the balance of power almost always led Donald Trump to choose the counter-attack and the rise to rhetorical extremes, without giving an inch. Applying a recipe from game theory, taught to experts in nuclear deterrence as well as to poker players, he seeks to convince Kim Jong-un and his Chinese protectors that he is not bluffing when he says he will never accept a nuclearization of North Korea putting the American territory within range of its missiles. The President of the United States seems to want to take advantage of his image as an impulsive leader to lend credibility to his words. His calculation could be to arm wrestle “on the brink”, as Kennedy had done during the Cuba crisis, to convince the Chinese to push Pyongyang to let go of nuclearization. In exchange for a mission of good offices from China, which would solve the problem, Trump suggests not launching his trade war against Beijing and he has instructed Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to propose the opening of direct negotiations with Pyongyang, which would aim to offer the communist regime advantages as well as the assurance of doing nothing to bring it down.

But what if Trump is wrong about Kim's psychology – or Beijing's ability to influence – and triggers an uncontrollable escalation with his nuclear poker? The question arises as North Korea has so far opted for one-upmanship, threatening to launch an attack on the American island of Guam, in the Pacific. Pyongyang's army has announced that it will have an offensive plan against Guam ready by mid-August. This plan would plan to fire 4 missiles over Japan, which in 17 minutes and 45 seconds would “crash in the sea 30 or 40 km from the American island”. The danger, say analysts and politicians, would be that Kim decides, on a whim, to test his credibility by firing into Guam. What then would be the military options of an American president who would be forced to react in order not to lose face? Could he strike a blow at the North Korean regime without tipping the region into all-out war? Worried, 60 MPs sent a letter to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson denouncing Trump's "irresponsible and dangerous statements". Abroad, Russia said it was “very worried” about the “very high risks of conflict”. Berlin said it saw no "military solution" to the case and the Chinese called on both sides to be "cautious". But Donald Trump is fearless.